{"id":208,"date":"2023-10-25T05:34:46","date_gmt":"2023-10-25T05:34:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pakstne.com\/blog\/consumers-have-spent-all-of-their-excess-savings-from-the-pandemic-jpmorgan-says-this-is-just-one-reason-why-stocks-are-poised-to-drop\/"},"modified":"2023-12-24T18:29:42","modified_gmt":"2023-12-24T18:29:42","slug":"consumers-have-spent-all-of-their-excess-savings-from-the-pandemic-jpmorgan-says-this-is-just-one-reason-why-stocks-are-poised-to-drop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pakstne.com\/blog\/consumers-have-spent-all-of-their-excess-savings-from-the-pandemic-jpmorgan-says-this-is-just-one-reason-why-stocks-are-poised-to-drop\/","title":{"rendered":"Consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic.  JPMorgan says this is just one reason why stocks are poised to drop"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<figure class=\"caas-figure\">\n<div class=\"caas-figure-with-pb\" style=\"max-height: 480px\">\n<div>\n<div class=\"caas-img-container\" style=\"padding-bottom:50%\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"caas-img has-preview\" alt=\"Three people from behind carrying shopping bags\" bad-src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/uxdzU3LXBfF_6vpPPYCyoQ--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTQ4MA--\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/business_insider_articles_888\/3afd4a4d5a34a72e7d56a1f983f11f92\" src=\"https:\/\/s.yimg.com\/ny\/api\/res\/1.2\/uxdzU3LXBfF_6vpPPYCyoQ--\/YXBwaWQ9aGlnaGxhbmRlcjt3PTk2MDtoPTQ4MA--\/https:\/\/media.zenfs.com\/en\/business_insider_articles_888\/3afd4a4d5a34a72e7d56a1f983f11f92\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><figcaption class=\"caption-collapse\"><span class=\"copyright\">Cavan Images \/ Getty Images<\/span><\/figcaption><\/p>\n<\/figure>\n<ul class=\"caas-list caas-list-bullet\">\n<li>\n<p><strong>According to JPMorgan, American consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>The bank highlighted consumer weakness as one of the reasons stocks are poised to continue lower.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li>\n<p><strong>&#8220;Even with a strong job market, US companies are seeing declining demand and prices as margin pressures persist.&#8221;<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The weak consumer is one reason the stock market is willing to continue its decline, according to him <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/stocks\/jpm-stock?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:JPMorgan's;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">JPMorgan<\/a> Marko Kolanovic.<\/p>\n<p>In a note on Thursday, he said consumers have spent the entirety of their excess savings from the pandemic, which at one point amounted to more than $2 trillion.  This tailwind is now over, according to the bank, and consumer spending could ease further <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/news\/stocks\/student-loan-payments-restart-debt-fear-pressure-consumers-economy-survey-2023-6?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:as student loan payments restart in October.;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">With student loan payments being repaid in October.<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our estimate of the excess savings of American households when adjusting for inflation has now been fully depleted from the 2021 high of $2.1 trillion, with the risk of a widening imbalance if expenditures accelerate,&#8221; Kolanovic said.<\/p>\n<p>And while there remains high levels of household liquidity across monetary assets, estimated at $1.4 trillion when adjusted for inflation, that too is at risk of being completely depleted by May of 2024, he estimated.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Our concern is whether excess liquidity will support even above-trend consumption for an extended period,&#8221; Kolanovic said.  &#8220;We continue to believe that lower-income groups are increasingly under pressure with lower compensation and little indication of mitigating the higher cost of the capital environment.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>a <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/student-loan-payments-consumer-led-recession-david-rosenberg-2023-8?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:softening consumer;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">Soften the consumer<\/a> It is just one reason to remain cautious about the stock market amid its 5% decline, according to the note.  Other areas of concern include deteriorating profit margins, <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/fed-rate-hike-july-inflation-powell-recession-federal-reserve-2023-7?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:high interest rates;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">High interest rates<\/a>and lower incentives for stock repurchase programs.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cThe 2024 Consensus EPS growth rate of 12% is a significant hurdle for an obsolete business cycle with very restrictive monetary policy, an ever-increasing cost of capital, very easy fiscal policy, eroding consumer savings and household liquidity, low unemployment and increasing risks from recession for some of the largest economies.\u201d coming.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><button class=\"link caas-button collapse-button\" data-ylk=\"elm:readmore;slk:Story continues\">Story continues<\/button><\/p>\n<p>Kolanowicz highlighted China and Germany <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/china-deflation-prices-falling-us-inflation-global-economic-crash-recession-2023-7?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:countries at risk of an imminent recession,;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">countries at risk of imminent recession,<\/a> The bank still expects the US to enter a recession sometime in early 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, margins should remain under pressure &#8220;given the delayed effects of monetary policy on demand&#8221; as more and more companies use promotions and incentives to stimulate demand.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;This erosion of pricing power along with increased labor costs and increased interest expense should continue to pressure margins,&#8221; Kolanovic said.<\/p>\n<p>Another headwind for the stock market, he added, is the fact that wealthy valuations make buybacks less attractive to companies when they are debt-financed.  That, along with the new buyback tax, should mean less stock price support via buyback programs.<\/p>\n<p>Kolanovi\u0107 eventually expects it to be <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/markets.businessinsider.com\/index\/s&amp;p_500?utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_source=yahoo.com\" data-ylk=\"slk:S&amp;P 500;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">Standard &#038; Poor&#8217;s 500<\/a> To end the year at 4,200, which is a potential downside of about 4% from current levels.<\/p>\n<p>Read the original article at <a rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/stock-market-outlook-consumers-spend-down-excess-pandemic-savings-2023-8\" data-ylk=\"slk:Business Insider;elm:context_link;itc:0\" class=\"link \">Business interested<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cavan Images \/ Getty Images According to JPMorgan, American consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic. The bank highlighted consumer weakness as one of the reasons&#8230; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":209,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v20.7 (Yoast SEO v24.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Consumers have spent all of their excess savings from the pandemic. 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